Freitag, 26. August 2011

Der Plan

Deutsch/English

Die portugiesische Polizei zog sehr schnell die Simulation einer Entführung in Betracht und die Indizien sprechen deutlich dafür, dass der Abend des 3. Mai eine Inszenierung war. Hier meine Interpretation der Ereignisse basierend auf den Polizeiakten und den Rogatory Interviews, die ich in meiner Theorie schon grob angerissen habe:

Es wird oft als Argument gegen eine Inszenierung angeführt, dass man sicher mit einem überzeugenderen Ablauf als den sich darstellenden hätte aufwarten können, hätte man das Ganze geplant. Wenn man aber genauer hinsieht, wird klar, dass es sehr wohl einen ursprünglichen Plan gab, der relativ überzeugend hätte sein können, wäre nicht alles schief gelaufen, was schieflaufen konnte an diesem Abend. Der Schlüssel, mit dem sich der Ablauf des Abendessens erklären lässt, ist die, sonst nie praktizierte, physische Überprüfung der Kinder der McCanns durch Matthew Oldfield um 21:30. Indiz für einen geänderten Plan gibt Gerry McCann selbst in seinem Interview am 10. Mai 2007:

„“The deponent had had the wrong idea that MATHEW had seen the bedroom shutters closed when he was there at 21H30, and therefore he thought the disappearance would have taken place between 21h30 and 22h00, but presently he is fully convinced that the abduction took place during the period of time between his check at 21h05 and MATHEW's visit at 21H30.

Die Überprüfung der Kinder durch Matt teilt den Zeitraum des Abendessens in zwei Teile, die Zeit zwischen 21:00-21:30 und 21:30-21:45 als die „Entführung“ m.M.n. ursprünglich entdeckt werden sollte. Die oben zitierte Aussage, deuted darauf hin, dass der ursprüngliche Plan eine Bestätigung durch Matt enthielt, dass um 21:30 Maddie noch im verschlossenen Zimmer war und die Entführung erst zwischen 21:30 und 21:45 stattgefunden hatte. Ein weiteres Indiz ist die ursprüngliche und dann geänderte Aussage von Gerry dass sie das Apartment immer über die Vordertür betreten hatten.

„“He is sure that they always entered through the front door, not knowing if they locked it upon leaving. „“


Warum wurde die ursprüngliche Version der geschlossenen Verandatüren abgeändert? Der einzige Grund dafür kann nur der gewesen sein, dass man Matt eine Möglichkeit des Zugangs IN das Apartment gewähren musste. Warum? Weil der ursprüngliche Plan, der eine Überprüfung der Kinder an der Aussenseite der Fenster vorsah, nicht mehr möglich war, da sich der Entführungszeitpunkt vom zweiten Teil des Abendessens auf den ersten geändert hatte und Matt bei einer Überprüfung am Fenster sofort die offenen Jalousien bemerkt hätte.

Man hätte zwar Matt's Überprüfung komplett streichen können, wie es in einem der beiden handgeschriebenen Ablaufplänen in Madeleine's Stickerbuch auch getestet wurde, aber es würde dann eine entscheidende Überprüfung komplett fehlen und Tür und Tor für eine Anklage wegen Vernachlässigung öffnen. Man sollte nicht vergessen, dass die Freunde immer einen Überwachungszeitraum von 15 Minuten und die McCanns einen Zeitraum von 30 Minuten angaben.

Auf o.g. Überlegungen basierend ergibt sich daher der folgende ursprüngliche Plan:

Alle Freunde waren um 21:00 am Tisch im Restaurant versammelt. Um 21:15 hätte Jane an den Fenstern gelauscht und um 21:30 hätte Matthew einen Check der Kinder am Fenster gemacht und bestätigt, dass zu diesem Zeitpunkt die Jalousien noch intakt gewesen wären. Dies hätte den Entführungszeitraum auf die viertel Stunde nach 21:30 reduziert. Während dieser Zeit wären alle Mitglieder der Gruppe am Tisch gewesen, was die Kellner und Dianne Webster hätten bestätigen können. Ein ausreichendes Alibi für die gesamte Gruppe für die viertel Stunde der Entführung wäre sicher gewesen. Keine Lügen wären notwendig gewesen nur die Vortäuschung von Unwissenheit.

Warum aber die Planänderung? Warum wurde der Entführungszeitraum auf die Zeit VOR Matthews Check verlegt? Weil nur dann ein unabhängiger Zeuge vorhanden war, der Gerry gesehen hatte und den man benutzen konnte um ein Alibi für den Zeitpunkt der Entführung zu konstruieren. Durch Jane Tanner's Sichtung des Entführers zum gleichen Zeitpunkt an dem Gerry und Jeremy Wilkins ein Schwätzchen hielten. Was aber hatte dieses zweite Alibi notwendig gemacht? Warum reichte der ursprüngliche Plan nicht mehr aus? Ursache kann nur die Begegnung mit 9 Zeugen der Familie Smith gewesen sein.

Als Zusammenfassung soll diese logische Kette dienen:

Begegnung mit der Familie Smith
-> Notwendigkeit eines unabhängigen Alibis für den Zeitpunkt der Entführung
-> einziger unabhängiger Zeuge ist Jeremy Wilkins um 21:15
-> Jane's Sichtung des Entführers zum gleichen Zeitpunkt
-> Notwendigkeit die für 21:30-21:45 geplante Entführung vorzuverlegen
-> Matt darf nicht mehr am Fenster lauschen sondern muss INS Apartment gehen sonst hätte er das offene Fenster bemerken müssen
-> Verandatüren müssen nun offen sein sonst wäre er nicht hinein gekommen.

Ausserdem muss die Entdeckung der Entführung um eine viertel Stunde auf 22:00 Uhr verschoben werden um exakt mit der Smith Begegnung zu kollidieren und Matthew muss ein klitzekleines bisschen mehr Licht sehen. Genug um eine bereits erfolgte Entführung zu "beweisen" aber nicht genug um einen Alarm auszulösen.

Dieser ursprüngliche Plan und seine notwendig gewordene Änderung erklärt eine Reihe von Merkwürdigkeiten und Änderungen in den Aussagen und Abläufen bzgl. des Abends:

- die nachträgliche Öffnung der Verandatüren
- die physische Überprüfung durch Matt, die lt. Dianne Webster sonst nie gemacht wurde
- die völlig falsche Beschreibung des Apartments 5A durch Matthew Oldfield
- die nie als glaubhaft eingestufte Schilderung von Jane Tanner's Entführer
- die skizzierten Zeitschienen einmal mit und einmal ohne Matt's Check
- die Tatsache dass die Begegnung der Familie Smith mit dem möglichen Entführer nie ausgeschlachtet wurde
- der tatsächliche Zeitpunkt des ersten Alarms um 21:45/50 am Tisch im Restaurant passt viel besser in alle Zeitschienen des Abends

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pretty soon the Portuguese police were contemplating the simulation of an abduction and the indications are clear and plenty that the evening of May 3rd was indeed a staged event. Here follows my interpretation of the events based on the police files and the rogatory interviews, already shortly mentioned in my theory:

There is often the argument against a staging that they could have come up with a more convincing course of events than the one given, had the whole thing been planned in advance. But if you look closer it becomes obvious that there had been an original plan that could have been relatively convincing, if it had not been thwarted by a streak of bad luck that evening. The key to unfold the events of the evening and the original plan is the fact that Matthew Oldfield checked physically on the children of the McCanns at 21:30, something never done before. Gerry himself gives a hint in his statement from May 10th:


„“The deponent had had the wrong idea that MATHEW had seen the bedroom shutters closed when he was there at 21H30, and therefore he thought the disappearance would have taken place between 21h30 and 22h00, but presently he is fully convinced that the abduction took place during the period of time between his check at 21h05 and MATHEW's visit at 21H30.

The checking of the children by Matt divides the timeframe of the dinner in two parts, the time between 21:00-21:30 and 21:30-21:45 when the "abduction" imo was supposed to be detected. The above quoted statement indicates that the original plan contained a confirmation by Matt that Maddie had still been in her room and that the abduction took place between 21:30-21:45. A further indication is the original (and later changed) statement by Gerry that they had always used the front door of the apartment.

„“He is sure that they always entered through the front door, not knowing if they locked it upon leaving. „“

Why was the original version of the closed patio doors changed? The only reason for this was that they had to give Matt a means of entry INTO the apartment. Why? Because the original plan, that saw him checking the children as usual at the windows, was not possible anymore because the time of the abduction had to be changed from the second part of the dinner to the first part and because Matt would have then immediately noticed the open shutters while listening at the window.

They could have omitted Matt's check completely, as tested in one of the versions of the written down timelines in the sticker book, but an important check would then be missing and the threat of neglect charges would be bigger. One should keep in mind that the friends always insisted on 15 minute intervals for their checks while the McCanns were content with 30 minute intervals.

Based on above deliberations the following original plan evolves:

All friends were assembled at the restaurant table at 21:00. At 21:15 Jane would have listened at the windows and at 21:30 Matthew would have done the same listening check at the windows later to confirm that the shutters had still been intact at that time. This would have narrowed down the timeframe for the abduction to 21:30-21:45. During this time all members of the group would have been at the table confirmed by the waiters and Dianne Webster. A sufficient alibi for the whole group for that timeframe. No lies necessary, just feigning ignorance.

But why the change of plan? Why was the time of the abduction brought forward to the time BEFORE Matthew's check? Because only then an independent witness was present who had seen Gerry and who could be used to construct an alibi for the time of the abduction. With the help of a simultaneous sighting by Jane of Gerry, Wilkins and the abductor. But what had made the second alibi necessary? Why did the first plan not suffice? The reason can only have been the meeting with 9 members of the Smith family.

This logic chain shall serve as a summary:

The encounter with the Smith family
-> necessity of an independent alibi for the time of the abduction
-> the only independent witness is Jeremy Wilkins at 21:15
-> Jane's sighting of the abductor at the same time
-> necessity to bring forward the abduction that was originally planned for 21:30-21:45
-> Matt can not be allowed to listen at the window but has to check INSIDE the apartment because otherwise he would have noticed the open window
-> the patiodoors have to be open now to facilitate his entry

Apart from this the discovery of the abduction had to be moved by a quater of an hour to 22:00 to exactly coincide with the Smith sighting and Matthew has to see a tiny bit of light during his check. Enough to "prove" that the abduction had already happened but not enough to get suspicious and raise the alarm.

This original plan and it's necessary changes explain a lot of the oddities and changes in the statements and the timeline regarding the evening:

- the belated opening of the patio doors
- the physical check by Matt which was contrary to all previous checks as Dianne Webster confirmed
- the completely wrong description of apartment 5A by Matthew Oldfield
- the never convincing description of the eggman encounter by Jane Tanner
- the two timelines one with and one without Matt's check
- the fact that the Smith Sighting of the possible abductor was never used like all other sightings were
- the time of the first alarm by Kate at the table of the restaurant at 21:45/50 fits much better in all timelines of the evening.

Montag, 15. August 2011

Cinderella

Dreams can come true!

Even for a girl of humble backgrounds.

If the right people take care of you...

She is now a live-in nanny looking after three children. Her location is being withheld on the request of the McCanns.

Mais Papa Maman,
Paris tout va bien,
Papa Maman,
Paris me convient
Tout va bien par ici

The little town blues, is melting away...
If I can make it there, I can make it anywhere..

Qua in Sardegna regna il buonumore,
anche quando è il caso di nascondere il dolore.

It's up to you, New York..New York New York!!!

......

Fairy tales can happen, especially if you believe in them (and tell them to the world)

Sonntag, 7. August 2011

Appreciation

Thank you all readers for the mostly very positive response to my blog. It had been very rewarding to arrive after 3 years at a point when my conclusions and errors finally focused into a theory that stands the test against the files, not necessarily against individual opinions. It has come natural to me to try and put some sense into the process after the release of the files. It is not hard work nor does it take away from my working time or time with my family. And it certainly does not cost money to maintain a blog on blogspots.

Therefore I would also like to thank those readers that occasionally ask me about how they could contribute to the blog. The only way I can think of is a contribution to the two sources without which all those little orange bits in my blog entries would not work. I am in the possession of the original files, but how much easier is it to just be able to go to a site, enter a keyword and find the appropriate part in the files instead of filing through huge adobe documents with the help of an index. And how better to visualise an argument than linking it directly to the databases that either contain the complete police files, scanned and indexed with their correlating translations into english or to the archive of shame as I call it mostly - that of the media reports.

Apart from the tranlators without which we could not exist there are therefore two main databases, that apart from being maintained with at least the same dedication than a mere blog, are also a costly enterprise and which I would recommend as being worthy of financial contribution should somebody wish to do so:

Gerry McCanns Blogs By Pamalam - the police files database and
mccannfiles.com - the media database

Mittwoch, 3. August 2011

Old entries - New translations

I am going to go over the more important blog entries, translating them one by one in the next couple of days/weeks refreshing this post every time.

Here is the first one, an amazing piece of memory recovery:

Russell O'Liar

And one of the many changes scrutinized more closely:

Russell O'Liar 2

Matthew as well remembers lots of detail one year later:

Lügen haben lange Beine

The organisation of the children's club:

Der Kindergarten